Blackjack House Edge
Can we create a blackjack mathematical probability winning strategy in a Casino using Data Science?
Otherwise, all the data scientists out there would be sitting on piles of cash and the casinos would shut us out!
But, in this article we will learn how to evaluate if a game in Casino is biased or fair.
We will understand the biases working in a casino and create strategies to become profitable.
We will also learn how can we control the probability of going bankrupt in Casinos.
To make the article interactive, I have added few puzzles in the end to use these strategies.
If you can crack them there is no strategy that can make you hedge against loosing in a Casino.
If your answer for second question is more than half of question one, then you fall in same basket as most of the players going to a Casino and you make them profitable!
Hence, the expected losses of a trade in Casino is almost equal to zero.
Why do our chances of gaining 100% or more are less than 50% but our chances of losing 100% is a lot more than 50%.
My recent experience with BlackJack Last week, I went to Atlantic City — the casino hub of US east coast.
BlackJack has always been my favorite game because of a lot of misconceptions.
For the starters, let me take you through how BlackJack is played.
There are few important things to note about BlackJack.
Player tries to maximize his score without being burst.
There are a few more complicated concepts like insurance and split, which is beyond the scope of this article.
So, we will keep things simple.
I was excited about all the winning I was about to get!!
I will try not see more talk a lot in that language.
So if you are scared of probabilities you are fine.
No knowledge of R is required to understand the output.
What to expect in this article?
Here are the questions, I will try to answer in this article.
Is it more than 50% as I thought, or was I terribly wrong?
I can certainly use that when I go to Casino the next time.
What would you do?
By now, you will know that your cards are really poor but do you take another card and expose yourself to the risk of getting burst OR you will take the chance to stay and let the dealer get burst.
Simulation 1 Let us try to calculate the probability of the dealer getting burst.
This function will take input as the initial hand and draw a new card.
There are 6 possible outcomes for the dealers - getting a hard 17, 18,19, 20, 21 or getting burst.
Here is the probability distribution given for the first card of the dealer.
The probability of the dealer getting burst is 39.
This means you will loose 60% of times — Is that a good strategy?
With this additional information, we can make refinement to the probability of winning given our 2 cards and dealers 1 card.
Define the set for player's first 2+ sure card sum.
It can be between 12-21.
If the sum was less than 12, player will continuously take more cards till he is in this range.
And if the dealer does not have the same, the Player is definite to win.
The probability of winning for the player sum 12-16 should ideally be equal to the probability of dealer going burst.
Dealer will have to open a new card if it has a sum between 12-16.
This is actually the case which validates that our two simulations are consistent.
To decide whether it is worth opening another card, calls into question what will be the probability to win if player decides to take another card.
Insight 2 — If your sum is more than 17 and dealer gets a card 2-6, odds of winning is in your favor.
This is even without including Ties.
Simulation 3 In this simulation the only change from simulation 2 is that, player will pick one additional card.
Favorable probability table if you choose to draw a card is as follows.
So what did you learn from here.
Is it beneficial to draw a card at 8 + 6 or stay?
Favorable probability without drawing a card at 8 + 6 and dealer has 4 ~ 40% Favorable probability with drawing a card at 8 + 6 and dealer has 4 blackjack always hit on 16 43.
Here is the difference blackjack mathematical probability %Favorable events for each of the combination that can help you design a blackjack mathematical probability />Cells highlighted in green are where you need to pick a new card.
Cells highlighted in pink are all stays.
Cells not highlighted are where player can make a random choice, difference in probabilities is indifferent.
Our win rate is far lower than the loss rate of the game.
It would have been much better if we just tossed a coin.
The biggest difference is that the dealer wins if both the player and the dealer gets burst.
Insight 3 — Even with the best strategy, a player wins 41% times as against dealer who wins 49% times.
The difference is driven by the tie breaker when both player and dealer goes burst.
This is consistent with our burst table, which shows that probability of the dealer getting burst is 28.
Hence, both the player and the dealer getting burst will be 28.
Deep dive into betting strategy Now we know what is the right gaming strategy, however, even the best gaming strategy can lead you to about 41% wins and 9% ties, leaving you to a big proportion of losses.
Is there a betting strategy that can come to rescue us from this puzzle?
The probability of winning in blackjack is known now.
We know that the strategy that works in a coin toss event will also work in black jack.
However, coin toss event is significantly less computationally intensive.
What got me to thinking was that even though the average value of anyone leaving the casino is same as what one starts with, the percentage times someone becomes bankrupt is much higher than 50%.
Also, if you increase the number of games, the percentage times someone becomes bankrupt increases.
On your lucky days, you can win as much as you can possibly win, and Casino will never stop you blackjack mathematical probability that Casino is now bankrupt.
So in this biased game between you and Casino, for a non-rigged game, both you and Casino has the expected value of no gain no loss.
But you have a lower bound and Casino has no lower bound.
So, to pull the expected value down, a high number of people like you have to become bankrupt.
Let us validate this theory through a simuation using the previously defined functions.
Clearly the bankruptcy rate and maximum earning seem correlation.
What it means is that the more games you play, your probability of becoming bankrupt and becoming a millionaire both increases simultaneously.
So, if it is not your super duper lucky day, you will end up loosing everything.
Imagine 10 people P1, P2, P3, P4 ….
P10 is most lucky, P9 is second in line….
P1 is the most unlucky.
Next in line of bankruptcy is P2 and so on.
In no time, P1 and P2 would rob P3.
Casino is just a medium to redistribute wealth if the games are fair and not rigged, which we have already concluded is not the case.
Insight 4 — The more games you play, the chances of your bankruptcy and maximum amount you can win, both increases for a fair game which itself is a myth.
Is there a way to control for this bankruptcy in a non-bias game?
What if we make the game fair.
Now this looks fair!
Let us run the same simulation we ran with the earlier strategy.
Again mathematician style — Hence Proved!
The Bankruptcy rate clearly fluctuates around 50%.
You can decrease it even further if you cap your earning at a lower % than 100%.
But sadly, no one can cap their winning when they are in Casino.
And not stopping at 100% makes them more likely to become bankrupt later.
Insight 5 — The only way to win in a Casino is to decide the limit of winning.
On your lucky day, you will actually win that limit.
https://gothailand.info/blackjack/meilleur-jeu-de-blackjack-en-ligne.html you do otherwise, blackjack game halloween will be bankrupt even in your most lucky day.
Exercise 1 Level : Low — If you set your higher limit of earning as 50% instead of 100%, at what % will your bankruptcy rate reach a stagnation?
Exercise 2 Level : High — Martingale is a famous betting strategy.
The rule is simple, whenever you loose, you make the bet twice of the last bet.
Once you win, you come back blackjack mathematical probability the original minimum bet.
You win 3 games and then you loose 3 games and finally you win 1 game.
For such a betting strategy, find: a.
If the expected value of winning changes?
Does probability of winning changes at the end of a series of game?
Is this strategy any better than our constant value strategy without any upper bound?
go here about bankruptcy rate, expect value at the end of series, probability to win more games, highest earning potential.
High number of matches can be as high as 500, low number of matches can be as low as 10.
Exercise 3 Level — Medium — For the Martingale strategy, does it make sense to put a cap on earning at 100% to decrease the chances of bankruptcy?
Is this strategy any better than our constant value strategy with 100% upper bound with constant betting?
Talk about bankruptcy rate, expect value at the end of series, probability to win more games, highest earning potential.
End Notes Casinos are the best place to apply concepts of mathematics and idea bovada blackjack cheating pity worst place to test these concepts.
As most of the games are rigged, you will only have fair chances to win while playing against other click, in games like Poker.
If there was one thing you want to take away from this article before entering a Casino, that will be always fix the upper bound to %earning.
You might think that this is against your winning streak, however, this is the only way to play a level game with Casino.
I hope you enjoyed reading this articl.
If learn more here use these strategies next time you visit a Casino I bet you will find them extremely helpful.
If you have any doubts feel free to post them below.
Now, I am sure you are excited enough to solve the three examples referred in this article.
Make sure you share your answers with us in the comment section.
You can also read this article on Analytics Vidhya's Android APP Tavish Srivastava, co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer link Analytics Vidhya, is an IIT Madras graduate and a passionate data-science professional with 8+ years of diverse experience in markets including the US, India and Singapore, domains including Digital Acquisitions, Customer Servicing and Customer Management, and industry including Retail Banking, Credit Cards and Insurance.
He is fascinated by the idea of artificial intelligence inspired by human intelligence and enjoys every discussion, theory or even movie related to this idea.
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The odds in a casino are not in line with the odds of winning.
Or we could just go random as well in the game and yet come out even every time.
Why You Should Never Play Blackjack
Study theory of probability in blackjack with mathematics of true odds, house advantage, edge, bust, basic strategy charts, card counting, systems, software.
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